For those of you who do not know, I am a fan of value cost averaging rather than dollar cost averaging. The idea behind value cost averaging is that you’re forced to sell high and buy low rather than continuing to buy regardless of how the market has performed.
It would seem like the logical extension of this is that you should try to time the market so that you buy low.
I advise against this approach, though. First, it prevents you from selling high. If the market is up, then you may need to be selling rather than buying, depending on your value cost average targets. Secondly, how do you know that, when the market goes down again, it’s going to be lower than it is on the day you originally were supposed to make the purchase? You may wind up worse off than you would have been had you simply stuck to the plan.
I can’t predict what the market is going to do. While Monkey Brain thinks he can, I know I can’t. So, rather than trying to predict the market, I simply pick a date each month (I do it on the first of the month) and put in my trades then. That way, I’m not tempted to try to time the market or deviate from my plan.