“The one thing that unites all human beings, regardless of age, gender, religion, economic status, or ethnic background, is that, deep down inside, we all believe that we are above-average drivers.”
Do you think that you’re a good driver?
You probably do.
Why do you think that?
You’ve probably only been in a wreck or two. You may have only had a couple of tickets. When you drive on the Interstate, people don’t go careening out of the way to avoid your approach.
Plus, you’re still alive.
In general, you’ve proven that, in almost any set of circumstances, you can get in a car, drive, and arrive at your destination completely intact.
So, you’re a good, competent driver in that you can get to work every day and come home and not have significant worries about completing the task.
But, are you a great driver?
How would you know? What’s the standard by which you measure a good driver?
Are you this guy?
Because we have no measure of what an average driver looks like, 93% of us think that we’re above average drivers.
The bar is relatively low – don’t crash or cause others to crash while driving, and because we exceed that bar, we jump to what are probably unwarranted conclusions about our skills.
Driving is not the only area where setting a low bar leads to unrealistic expectations.
How Low Bars Make You Think You’re a Great Investor
As an investor, subconsciously, your first and foremost goal is to avoid losing money. Note that I included the word subconsciously in that statement. While your limbic system, what I call Monkey Brain – given that we share the same brain part with our simian counterparts – would love for you to make mad scads of cash and be able to roll in the dough and drive a fancy car, realistically, the bar is actually pretty low.
In “Why Past Performance Affects Your Future Investing Actions,” we saw that we are driven primarily by loss and regret aversion. We hate the thought that we could lose something, particularly money, and losing money hurts us more psychologically than making the same amount money provides us with pleasure.
Since we hate taking losses, we let our losers ride and sell our winners so that, in our mental accounts of our investing prowess, we can tell ourselves that we’re good investors.
Our bar for “good investor” is set at the standard of “not losing money.”
But, given the historical performance of the stock market, are we setting the bar too low?
As we’re susceptible to our investing biases, we’re afraid to lose, but the average annual return of the S&P 500 since 1871 is 10.75%.
You can look at different timeframes to see just how low the mental bar of “don’t lose money” actually is.
This chart shows that even a trained (or untrained) monkey could probably beat the low bar that Monkey Brain sets for our perception of investing prowess.
Furthermore, a full 22.4% of the time (32 out of 143 years), given an unhinged mental assertion of how good we are – not losing money – we tell ourselves that we’re good (we didn’t lose money!), when we underperformed the market average.
Therefore, according to Monkey Brain, you could be a good investor while significantly underperforming the market.
Add this to the series of missteps you could make by falling prey to the behavioral biases that can affect your money.